G.4The Funding Ledgers
Every line of every pilot centre's ledger, every year from 0 to 20, and what pays for it. At the three pilot centres Years 0–3 cost $19,683,808, and the corpus (the endowment's invested capital) ends Year 20 at 121% of its $40M target in today's dollars, keeping its real value (value after inflation) in 71% of 5,000 futures.
Each ledger is the funding model's result for one centre, before the 10% reserve for unforeseen costs (the contingency). It is shown in the two parts the Budget Book uses: A, the running cost a centre adds, and B, the programme money that reaches hawkers, after subtracting any income the programme earns. From Year 4 each centre runs at a steady maintenance level, in Year 3 prices, rising each year with prices as in the central plan. All figures are Derived from the Assumption rates in G.1, Inputs and Sources; stall counts are Official. The long file holds every centre, every line and every year, the typical further centre included. g4-ledgers.csv
G.4.1The national core
| National operating line | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Years 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core team, with the first Lighthouse's own roles | – | $429,000 | $532,000 | $682,000 | $1,643,000 |
| Interim project lead and research assistants | $168,000 | – | – | – | $168,000 |
| Office, legal, audit and insurance; communications and events; the independent evaluator | $114,000 | $135,000 | $150,000 | $180,000 | $579,000 |
| Hawker Council fees and elections; directors' stall-visit vouchers | $17,000 | $22,200 | $34,200 | $22,200 | $95,600 |
| Shared national platforms: the Taste Council and feedback platform, the digital repository | – | $145,000 | $90,000 | $115,000 | $350,000 |
| Buying Circles (§2.12): partnerships role, part-time, 0.5 FTE (ASSUMPTION) | – | $39,000 | $39,000 | $39,000 | $117,000 |
| Buying Circles (§2.12): open price board on the Plate Ledger's data, and group-order templates (ASSUMPTION) | – | $10,000 | $4,000 | $4,000 | $18,000 |
| Pilot-centre coordinator, in the core team (ASSUMPTION) | – | $78,000 | $78,000 | $78,000 | $234,000 |
| Regulars' List (§3.6): coordinator, 1 FTE (ASSUMPTION) | – | $78,000 | $78,000 | $78,000 | $234,000 |
| Regulars' List (§3.6): for each new listing, the listing visit ($10 travel, no stipend), the decal at print cost, the Registry page and the thank-you notes; a new decal for each stall that moves up a tier (ASSUMPTION) | – | $12,000 | $12,150 | $8,300 | $32,450 |
| Regulars' List (§3.6): each centre's yearly booklet and map, at all 123 government centres (ASSUMPTION) | – | $36,750 | $32,750 | $32,750 | $102,250 |
| Regulars' List (§3.6): the place on the open price board and in the Buying Circles' order book, the increment only (ASSUMPTION) | – | $6,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $10,000 |
| A, the core, with the 10% contingency | $328,900 | $1,090,045 | $1,157,310 | $1,365,375 | $3,941,630 |
G.4.2The four stacks
How each year's net requirement (what the plan must raise that year, after its own income) is met at two, three, four and five pilot centres. In Year 0 the gifts for spending and the foundation grants pay for everything. In Years 1–3 four sources pay: the yearly draw from the fund, the Government's operating match (the Government's yearly grant towards running costs), the gifts for spending and the bond ladder (bonds bought in Year 0 with bridge grants, timed to mature when the money is needed). The two Lighthouses (the first two pilot centres, Chinatown Complex and Geylang Serai) alone are the downside mode (§7.8, Downside Mode & Sunset Economics); five is the most the plan opens before the gate (§6.5, Gate Criteria to Scale). g4-stacks.csv
| Year | Net requirement | Endowment draw | Government match | Gifts for spending | Foundations or bond ladder | Unfunded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two Lighthouses (downside mode) | ||||||
| Year 0 | $906,598 | – | – | $193,000 | $713,598 | – |
| Year 1 | $4,402,286 | $420,000 | $300,000 | $300,000 | $3,382,286 | – |
| Year 2 | $5,290,669 | $1,051,917 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $3,440,669 | – |
| Year 3 | $5,624,989 | $1,406,719 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $3,224,989 | – |
| Years 0–3 | $16,224,542 | bridge grants in Year 0 $9,643,366; major gifts $5.74M; corpus in Year 20 158% of the $40M in today's dollars; short over Years 4–20 nothing | ||||
| Three pilot centres (the plan) | ||||||
| Year 0 | $906,598 | – | – | $193,000 | $713,598 | – |
| Year 1 | $4,629,249 | $420,000 | $300,000 | $300,000 | $3,609,249 | – |
| Year 2 | $6,706,257 | $1,051,917 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $4,856,257 | – |
| Year 3 | $7,441,704 | $1,406,719 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $5,041,704 | – |
| Years 0–3 | $19,683,808 | bridge grants in Year 0 $12,930,522; major gifts $5.74M; corpus in Year 20 121% of the $40M in today's dollars; short over Years 4–20 nothing | ||||
| Four: with Old Airport Road | ||||||
| Year 0 | $906,598 | – | – | $193,000 | $713,598 | – |
| Year 1 | $4,903,765 | $420,000 | $300,000 | $300,000 | $3,883,765 | – |
| Year 2 | $8,733,099 | $1,051,917 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $6,883,099 | – |
| Year 3 | $10,727,123 | $1,406,719 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $8,327,123 | – |
| Years 0–3 | $25,270,585 | bridge grants in Year 0 $18,230,550; major gifts $5.74M; corpus in Year 20 86% of the $40M in today's dollars; short over Years 4–20 $9.43M | ||||
| Five: with Maxwell | ||||||
| Year 0 | $906,598 | – | – | $193,000 | $713,598 | – |
| Year 1 | $5,117,011 | $420,000 | $300,000 | $300,000 | $4,097,011 | – |
| Year 2 | $10,369,424 | $1,051,917 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $8,519,424 | – |
| Year 3 | $13,290,492 | $1,406,719 | $500,000 | $500,000 | $10,890,492 | – |
| Years 0–3 | $29,683,525 | bridge grants in Year 0 $22,417,545; major gifts $5.74M; corpus in Year 20 86% of the $40M in today's dollars; short over Years 4–20 $23.34M |
G.4.3Chinatown Complex
226 cooked-food stallsOfficial · planning count 27Derived · opens in Year 1 · a Lighthouse · managed by Jalan Besar Town Council
| Line | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Years 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Programme (B), gross | |||||
| Master Fellowships | – | $726,000 | $816,750 | $907,500 | $2,450,250 |
| Apprentice stipends | – | $810,944 | $947,700 | $1,053,000 | $2,811,644 |
| Graduate Landing Packages | – | – | $160,000 | $160,000 | $320,000 |
| Documentation programme and field equipment | $35,000 | $174,000 | $162,000 | $180,000 | $551,000 |
| Relief-Hawker Corps | – | $261,295 | $397,397 | $397,397 | $1,056,089 |
| Second-station grants | – | $24,000 | $27,000 | $30,000 | $81,000 |
| Partner-kitchen sessions | – | $7,200 | $7,200 | $7,200 | $21,600 |
| Group critical-illness pool, stallholders 55+ | $99,000 | $99,000 | $99,000 | $99,000 | $396,000 |
| First-loss reserve and succession escrow | – | $120,000 | $135,000 | $150,000 | $405,000 |
| Listening and co-design (honoraria, sessions, participant fees) | $112,450 | – | – | – | $112,450 |
| Operating it adds (A), gross | |||||
| Centre staff | – | $78,000 | $78,000 | $78,000 | $234,000 |
| Buying Circles: circle leads' honoraria | – | $9,600 | $9,600 | $9,600 | $28,800 |
| Stall baseline: a two-week till count by dish type (interviewers, tally sheets, data assistant) | $50,420 | – | – | – | $50,420 |
| Programme revenue (deducted) | – | $80,000 | $130,500 | $250,000 | $460,500 |
| A, with the 10% contingency | $55,462 | $96,360 | $96,360 | $96,360 | $344,542 |
| B, with the contingency, less revenue | $271,095 | $2,364,683 | $2,896,752 | $3,032,507 | $8,565,037 |
| A + B | $326,557 | $2,461,043 | $2,993,112 | $3,128,867 | $8,909,579 |
G.4.4Geylang Serai Market and Food Centre
63 cooked-food stallsOfficial · planning count 8Derived · opens in Year 1 · a Lighthouse · managed by NEA
| Line | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Years 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Programme (B), gross | |||||
| Master Fellowships | – | $181,500 | $272,250 | $272,250 | $726,000 |
| Apprentice stipends | – | $202,736 | $315,900 | $315,900 | $834,536 |
| Graduate Landing Packages | – | – | $40,000 | $60,000 | $100,000 |
| Documentation programme and field equipment | $35,000 | $66,000 | $54,000 | $54,000 | $209,000 |
| Relief-Hawker Corps | – | $99,012 | $133,234 | $133,234 | $365,480 |
| Second-station grants | – | $6,000 | $9,000 | $9,000 | $24,000 |
| Partner-kitchen sessions | – | $7,200 | $7,200 | $7,200 | $21,600 |
| Group critical-illness pool, stallholders 55+ | $27,750 | $27,750 | $27,750 | $27,750 | $111,000 |
| First-loss reserve and succession escrow | – | $30,000 | $45,000 | $45,000 | $120,000 |
| Listening and co-design (honoraria, sessions, participant fees) | $81,850 | – | – | – | $81,850 |
| Operating it adds (A), gross | |||||
| Centre staff | $39,000 | $117,000 | $117,000 | $117,000 | $390,000 |
| Independent evaluator (baseline, then fieldwork) | $30,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $105,000 |
| Taste Council tastings | – | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $45,000 |
| Community events | – | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $30,000 |
| Buying Circles: circle leads' honoraria | – | $4,800 | $4,800 | $4,800 | $14,400 |
| Stall baseline: a two-week till count by dish type (interviewers, tally sheets, data assistant) | $14,710 | – | – | – | $14,710 |
| Programme revenue (deducted) | – | $20,000 | $43,500 | $75,000 | $138,500 |
| A, with the 10% contingency | $92,081 | $188,980 | $188,980 | $188,980 | $659,021 |
| B, with the contingency, less revenue | $159,060 | $662,218 | $951,267 | $941,767 | $2,714,312 |
| A + B | $251,141 | $851,198 | $1,140,247 | $1,130,747 | $3,373,333 |
G.4.5Tekka Centre
119 cooked-food stallsOfficial · planning count 9Derived · opens in Year 2 · a pilot centre · managed by Tanjong Pagar Town Council
| Line | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Years 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Programme (B), gross | |||||
| Master Fellowships | – | – | $363,000 | $453,750 | $816,750 |
| Apprentice stipends | – | – | $421,200 | $526,500 | $947,700 |
| Graduate Landing Packages | – | – | – | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| Documentation programme and field equipment | – | – | $72,000 | $90,000 | $162,000 |
| Relief-Hawker Corps | – | – | $164,312 | $226,468 | $390,780 |
| Second-station grants | – | – | $12,000 | $15,000 | $27,000 |
| Partner-kitchen sessions | – | – | $7,200 | $7,200 | $14,400 |
| Group critical-illness pool, stallholders 55+ | – | $51,750 | $51,750 | $51,750 | $155,250 |
| First-loss reserve and succession escrow | – | – | $60,000 | $75,000 | $135,000 |
| Listening and co-design (honoraria, sessions, participant fees) | – | $57,350 | – | – | $57,350 |
| Operating it adds (A), gross | |||||
| Centre staff | – | $39,000 | $117,000 | $117,000 | $273,000 |
| Independent evaluator (baseline, then fieldwork) | – | $30,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $80,000 |
| Taste Council tastings | – | – | $15,000 | $15,000 | $30,000 |
| Community events | – | – | $10,000 | $10,000 | $20,000 |
| Buying Circles: circle leads' honoraria | – | – | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,600 |
| Stall baseline: a two-week till count by dish type (interviewers, tally sheets, data assistant) | – | $28,230 | – | – | $28,230 |
| Programme revenue (deducted) | – | – | $40,000 | $72,500 | $112,500 |
| A, with the 10% contingency | – | $106,953 | $188,980 | $188,980 | $484,913 |
| B, with the contingency, less revenue | – | $120,010 | $1,226,608 | $1,627,735 | $2,974,353 |
| A + B | – | $226,963 | $1,415,588 | $1,816,715 | $3,459,266 |
G.4.6Old Airport Road Food Centre (Blk 51)
168 cooked-food stallsOfficial · planning count 16Derived · opens in Year 2 · an add-on · managed by Marine Parade–Braddell Heights Town Council
| Line | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Years 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Programme (B), gross | |||||
| Master Fellowships | – | – | $544,500 | $907,500 | $1,452,000 |
| Apprentice stipends | – | – | $631,800 | $1,053,000 | $1,684,800 |
| Graduate Landing Packages | – | – | – | $200,000 | $200,000 |
| Documentation programme and field equipment | – | – | $108,000 | $180,000 | $288,000 |
| Relief-Hawker Corps | – | – | $210,929 | $304,163 | $515,092 |
| Second-station grants | – | – | $18,000 | $30,000 | $48,000 |
| Partner-kitchen sessions | – | – | $7,200 | $7,200 | $14,400 |
| Group critical-illness pool, stallholders 55+ | – | $73,500 | $73,500 | $73,500 | $220,500 |
| First-loss reserve and succession escrow | – | – | $90,000 | $150,000 | $240,000 |
| Listening and co-design (honoraria, sessions, participant fees) | – | $66,500 | – | – | $66,500 |
| Operating it adds (A), gross | |||||
| Centre staff | – | $39,000 | $156,000 | $156,000 | $351,000 |
| Independent evaluator (baseline, then fieldwork) | – | $30,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $80,000 |
| Taste Council tastings | – | – | $15,000 | $15,000 | $30,000 |
| Community events | – | – | $10,000 | $10,000 | $20,000 |
| Buying Circles: circle leads' honoraria | – | – | $7,200 | $7,200 | $14,400 |
| Stall baseline: a two-week till count by dish type (interviewers, tally sheets, data assistant) | – | $40,560 | – | – | $40,560 |
| Programme revenue (deducted) | – | – | $60,000 | $145,000 | $205,000 |
| A, with the 10% contingency | – | $120,516 | $234,520 | $234,520 | $589,556 |
| B, with the contingency, less revenue | – | $154,000 | $1,792,322 | $3,050,899 | $4,997,221 |
| A + B | – | $274,516 | $2,026,842 | $3,285,419 | $5,586,777 |
G.4.7Maxwell Food Centre
103 cooked-food stallsOfficial · planning count 13Derived · opens in Year 2 · an add-on · managed by NEA
| Line | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Years 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Programme (B), gross | |||||
| Master Fellowships | – | – | $453,750 | $726,000 | $1,179,750 |
| Apprentice stipends | – | – | $526,500 | $842,400 | $1,368,900 |
| Graduate Landing Packages | – | – | – | $160,000 | $160,000 |
| Documentation programme and field equipment | – | – | $90,000 | $144,000 | $234,000 |
| Relief-Hawker Corps | – | – | $148,773 | $195,390 | $344,163 |
| Second-station grants | – | – | $15,000 | $24,000 | $39,000 |
| Partner-kitchen sessions | – | – | $7,200 | $7,200 | $14,400 |
| Group critical-illness pool, stallholders 55+ | – | $45,000 | $45,000 | $45,000 | $135,000 |
| First-loss reserve and succession escrow | – | – | $75,000 | $120,000 | $195,000 |
| Listening and co-design (honoraria, sessions, participant fees) | – | $54,350 | – | – | $54,350 |
| Operating it adds (A), gross | |||||
| Centre staff | – | $39,000 | $117,000 | $117,000 | $273,000 |
| Independent evaluator (baseline, then fieldwork) | – | $30,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $80,000 |
| Taste Council tastings | – | – | $15,000 | $15,000 | $30,000 |
| Community events | – | – | $10,000 | $10,000 | $20,000 |
| Buying Circles: circle leads' honoraria | – | – | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,600 |
| Stall baseline: a two-week till count by dish type (interviewers, tally sheets, data assistant) | – | $25,510 | – | – | $25,510 |
| Programme revenue (deducted) | – | – | $50,000 | $116,000 | $166,000 |
| A, with the 10% contingency | – | $103,961 | $188,980 | $188,980 | $481,921 |
| B, with the contingency, less revenue | – | $109,285 | $1,447,345 | $2,374,389 | $3,931,019 |
| A + B | – | $213,246 | $1,636,325 | $2,563,369 | $4,412,940 |
G.4.8Years 4 to 20, by centre
Each centre's two parts together, and the national core, in each year's money. g4-ledgers.csv
| Year | Prices | Core (A) | Chinatown Complex | Geylang Serai | Tekka | Old Airport Road | Maxwell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.061 | $1,385,856 | $1,405,858 | $635,631 | $766,523 | $1,157,485 | $724,288 |
| 5 | 1.077 | $1,406,643 | $1,426,946 | $645,165 | $778,021 | $1,174,847 | $735,152 |
| 6 | 1.093 | $1,427,743 | $1,448,350 | $654,842 | $789,691 | $1,192,470 | $746,179 |
| 7 | 1.110 | $1,449,159 | $1,470,076 | $664,665 | $801,536 | $1,210,357 | $757,372 |
| 8 | 1.126 | $1,470,897 | $1,492,127 | $674,635 | $813,559 | $1,228,512 | $768,733 |
| 9 | 1.143 | $1,492,960 | $1,514,509 | $684,755 | $825,763 | $1,246,940 | $780,264 |
| 10 | 1.161 | $1,515,354 | $1,537,226 | $695,026 | $838,149 | $1,265,644 | $791,968 |
| 11 | 1.178 | $1,538,085 | $1,560,285 | $705,451 | $850,722 | $1,284,628 | $803,847 |
| 12 | 1.196 | $1,561,156 | $1,583,689 | $716,033 | $863,482 | $1,303,898 | $815,905 |
| 13 | 1.214 | $1,584,573 | $1,607,444 | $726,774 | $876,435 | $1,323,456 | $828,143 |
| 14 | 1.232 | $1,608,342 | $1,631,556 | $737,675 | $889,581 | $1,343,308 | $840,566 |
| 15 | 1.250 | $1,632,467 | $1,656,029 | $748,740 | $902,925 | $1,363,458 | $853,174 |
| 16 | 1.269 | $1,656,954 | $1,680,870 | $759,971 | $916,469 | $1,383,910 | $865,972 |
| 17 | 1.288 | $1,681,808 | $1,706,083 | $771,371 | $930,216 | $1,404,668 | $878,961 |
| 18 | 1.307 | $1,707,036 | $1,731,674 | $782,942 | $944,169 | $1,425,738 | $892,146 |
| 19 | 1.327 | $1,732,641 | $1,757,649 | $794,686 | $958,332 | $1,447,124 | $905,528 |
| 20 | 1.347 | $1,758,631 | $1,784,014 | $806,606 | $972,707 | $1,468,831 | $919,111 |
G.4.9The central plan, every row
What comes in, in $M of each year's money, from plan() at the central assumptions and expected returns, then where it goes. "Public" counts the anchor, the match, the operating match, tax forgone and NHB's half of the Year 0 grants. g4-plan.csv
| Yr | Anchor | Match | Partners, cash | Partners, rebates | Diners | Till dollar | Other firms | Major gifts | Foundations | Bridge grants | Gifts for spending | Govt ops match | Heritage Plate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.50 | 2.25 | – | – | – | – | – | 2.25 | 0.71 | 12.93 | 0.19 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.50 | 5.25 | 0.53 | 0.10 | 1.79 | 0.64 | 2.00 | 0.30 | – | – | 0.30 | 0.30 | – |
| 2 | – | 2.50 | 0.53 | 0.10 | 0.49 | 1.28 | 2.00 | 3.19 | – | – | 0.40 | 0.40 | – |
| 3 | – | – | 0.54 | 0.10 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 0.50 | – | – | – | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.060 |
| 4 | – | – | 0.55 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 1.60 | 0.53 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.56 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 1.60 | 0.54 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 0.96 |
| 6 | – | – | 0.34 | 0.065 | 0.52 | 1.60 | 0.55 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 1.80 |
| 7 | – | – | 0.35 | 0.066 | 0.53 | 1.60 | 0.55 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 8 | – | – | 0.35 | 0.067 | 0.54 | 1.60 | 0.56 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 9 | – | – | 0.36 | 0.068 | 0.55 | 1.60 | 0.57 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 10 | – | – | 0.36 | 0.069 | 0.55 | 1.60 | 0.58 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 11 | – | – | 0.22 | 0.042 | 0.56 | 1.60 | 0.59 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 12 | – | – | 0.22 | 0.043 | 0.57 | 1.60 | 0.60 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 13 | – | – | 0.23 | 0.043 | 0.58 | 1.60 | 0.61 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 14 | – | – | 0.23 | 0.044 | 0.59 | 1.60 | 0.62 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 15 | – | – | 0.23 | 0.045 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 0.63 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 16 | – | – | 0.14 | 0.027 | 0.61 | 1.60 | 0.63 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 17 | – | – | 0.14 | 0.028 | 0.61 | 1.60 | 0.64 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 18 | – | – | 0.15 | 0.028 | 0.62 | 1.60 | 0.65 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 19 | – | – | 0.15 | 0.029 | 0.63 | 1.60 | 0.66 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| 20 | – | – | 0.15 | 0.029 | 0.64 | 1.60 | 0.67 | – | – | – | – | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Yr | Draw | Ladder | Spend A | Spend B | Gifts spent | Unfunded | To corpus | Return | Corpus | Corpus, real | Tax forgone | Public | Private |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | – | – | 0.48 | 0.43 | – | – | 12.00 | – | 12.00 | 11.82 | 1.29 | 11.40 | 15.73 |
| 1 | 0.42 | 3.61 | 1.48 | 3.15 | – | – | 18.00 | 0.47 | 30.05 | 29.17 | 1.45 | 14.50 | 5.65 |
| 2 | 1.05 | 4.86 | 1.63 | 5.07 | – | – | 10.00 | 1.19 | 40.19 | 38.44 | 2.98 | 5.88 | 8.00 |
| 3 | 1.41 | 5.04 | 1.84 | 5.60 | – | – | 3.15 | 1.59 | 43.53 | 41.01 | 0.51 | 1.01 | 3.76 |
| 4 | 1.52 | – | 1.87 | 2.33 | 2.17 | – | 1.09 | 1.72 | 44.81 | 41.60 | 0.53 | 1.03 | 3.36 |
| 5 | 1.50 | – | 1.90 | 2.36 | 2.26 | – | 1.15 | 1.78 | 46.24 | 42.28 | 0.54 | 1.04 | 3.51 |
| 6 | 1.57 | – | 1.92 | 2.40 | 2.25 | – | 1.12 | 1.83 | 47.61 | 42.90 | 0.44 | 0.94 | 3.43 |
| 7 | 1.62 | – | 1.95 | 2.43 | 2.27 | – | 1.16 | 1.89 | 49.04 | 43.54 | 0.45 | 0.95 | 3.50 |
| 8 | 1.67 | – | 1.98 | 2.47 | 2.28 | – | 1.17 | 1.94 | 50.49 | 44.16 | 0.46 | 0.96 | 3.52 |
| 9 | 1.72 | – | 2.01 | 2.51 | 2.30 | – | 1.17 | 2.00 | 51.94 | 44.76 | 0.46 | 0.96 | 3.54 |
| 10 | 1.77 | – | 2.04 | 2.54 | 2.32 | – | 1.18 | 2.06 | 53.41 | 45.34 | 0.47 | 0.97 | 3.56 |
| 11 | 1.82 | – | 2.07 | 2.58 | 2.34 | – | 1.03 | 2.12 | 54.74 | 45.78 | 0.41 | 0.91 | 3.41 |
| 12 | 1.87 | – | 2.10 | 2.62 | 2.36 | – | 1.03 | 2.17 | 56.07 | 46.21 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 3.43 |
| 13 | 1.92 | – | 2.14 | 2.66 | 2.38 | – | 1.03 | 2.22 | 57.41 | 46.61 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 3.46 |
| 14 | 1.96 | – | 2.17 | 2.70 | 2.40 | – | 1.03 | 2.27 | 58.75 | 46.99 | 0.43 | 0.93 | 3.48 |
| 15 | 2.01 | – | 2.20 | 2.74 | 2.43 | – | 1.02 | 2.33 | 60.09 | 47.35 | 0.44 | 0.94 | 3.50 |
| 16 | 2.06 | – | 2.23 | 2.78 | 2.46 | – | 0.92 | 2.38 | 61.34 | 47.62 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 3.41 |
| 17 | 2.10 | – | 2.27 | 2.82 | 2.49 | – | 0.92 | 2.43 | 62.58 | 47.87 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 3.43 |
| 18 | 2.15 | – | 2.30 | 2.87 | 2.52 | – | 0.90 | 2.48 | 63.82 | 48.09 | 0.41 | 0.91 | 3.45 |
| 19 | 2.19 | – | 2.33 | 2.91 | 2.55 | – | 0.89 | 2.53 | 65.04 | 48.29 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 3.47 |
| 20 | 2.23 | – | 2.37 | 2.95 | 2.59 | – | 0.88 | 2.58 | 66.26 | 48.47 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 3.50 |
G.4.10The endowment's paths
Four paths, each run on expected returns and then through the same 5,000 futures as B.9.3, Five thousand futures. The base keeps its real value in 71% of futures. The stretch, five centres, in 32%. Earmarking (set aside for one use) half of the surplus gifts for the retirement match, in 54%. Fellowships from Year 4 at 20% of the planning count rather than 10%, in 47%. The base row reproduces B.9.3 exactly, which the build checks. g4-endowment-paths.csv
| Path: corpus in today's dollars, $M | Y0 | Y2 | Y4 | Y6 | Y8 | Y10 | Y12 | Y14 | Y16 | Y18 | Y20 | Keeps real value | Y20, P10–P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base: three centres, as planned | 11.8 | 38.4 | 41.6 | 42.9 | 44.2 | 45.3 | 46.2 | 47.0 | 47.6 | 48.1 | 48.5 | 71% | 70%–222% |
| Stretch: five centres, the most before the gate | 11.8 | 38.4 | 40.6 | 39.8 | 39.0 | 38.2 | 37.5 | 36.7 | 36.0 | 35.2 | 34.5 | 32% | 55%–135% |
| Half-surplus: half the surplus gifts earmarked for the match | 11.8 | 38.4 | 41.1 | 41.3 | 41.5 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.4 | 41.2 | 40.9 | 40.5 | 54% | 63%–162% |
| 20% maintenance: Fellowships from Year 4 at 20% of the planning count | 11.8 | 38.4 | 40.7 | 40.2 | 39.5 | 38.7 | 37.9 | 37.2 | 36.4 | 35.7 | 35.0 | 47% | 58%–171% |
The maintenance rate is the dial to watch, and the model's own test of it runs from 10% to 40%. g4-maintenance.csv
| Maintenance rate | Fellowships a year | Cost from Year 4 | Short, Y4–10 | Short, Y4–20 | Corpus Y20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 5 | $4.13M | – | – | 121% |
| 20% | 9 | $5.07M | $0.06M | $5.85M | 87% |
| 30% | 13 | $6.06M | $6.94M | $24.82M | 86% |
| 40% | 18 | $7.28M | $15.99M | $48.55M | 86% |
G.4.11When licensees fail
Nigel Chua's study of six hawker brands found that most licensed or acquired expansions shrank or closed (IPS, June 2024). The plan therefore assumes a third of Heritage Plate licensees fail each year, and tests none and half. The scenarios also earmark half of any surplus gifts for the match, as B.9.5, The retirement match: what giving could cover's central case does. g4-chua.csv
| Licensees failing a year | Licences Y4 | Y5 | Y7 on | Base covered | Stretch covered | Base short | Corpus Y20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None fail | $0.51M | $1.44M | $3.00M | 54% | 28% | $11.24M | 105% |
| A third fail (central) | $0.34M | $0.96M | $2.00M | 40% | 21% | $14.73M | 101% |
| Half fail | $0.26M | $0.72M | $1.50M | 33% | 17% | $16.47M | 99% |