G.2The Stall P&L by Archetype
Six stalls, every line. The typical tendered stall (won at NEA's open tender, usually by the highest bid) sells $17,667 a month and keeps $3,169, or $9.69 an hour over 327 hours, against the $11.64 the Progressive Wage (the pay ladder the Government sets for lower-wage jobs) sets for the assistant beside him. John, cooking alone, keeps $2,982; Ah Kow, with three assistants and a queue, keeps $12,807.
G.2.1A month and a year
Each column is the Follow-the-Plate model's profit and loss for one stall at its base inputs (G.1.2, The stall inputs). "Income and savings" adds Workfare (the Government's top-up for low-wage workers) and the retirement match to the net and takes off tax; "spendable cash" also takes off MediSave (the part of CPF that pays for health care) and keeps only Workfare's cash part. All lines are Derived model outputs. g2-pnl.csv
| A month | NEA, tendered | NEA, subsidised | HDB coffeeshop | Operator-run | John | Ah Kow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales: what diners pay | $17,667 | $16,232 | $20,939 | $17,315 | $11,891 | $45,300 |
| Ingredients | $7,862 | $7,223 | $9,318 | $7,884 | $5,589 | $20,158 |
| Rent | $1,250 | $290 | $3,400 | $1,700 | $1,250 | $1,250 |
| Turnover rent | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Centre fees | $720 | $720 | $1,000 | $1,050 | $720 | $720 |
| Assistants' wages | $2,920 | $2,920 | $2,920 | $2,920 | $0 | $7,800 |
| Utilities | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $800 | $1,600 |
| Delivery commission | $424 | $390 | $503 | $416 | $285 | $408 |
| Payment fees | $22 | $20 | $26 | $22 | $15 | $57 |
| Operator app discount | $0 | $0 | $0 | $346 | $0 | $0 |
| Other running costs | $300 | $300 | $300 | $420 | $250 | $500 |
| Hawker's net (profit) | $3,169 | $3,369 | $2,472 | $1,557 | $2,982 | $12,807 |
| MediSave | $333 | $354 | $260 | $163 | $268 | $840 |
| Income tax | $10 | $14 | $0 | $0 | $21 | $858 |
| Workfare | $0 | $0 | $136 | $259 | $3 | $0 |
| Income and savings | $3,159 | $3,356 | $2,609 | $1,816 | $2,964 | $11,950 |
| Spendable cash | $2,826 | $3,002 | $2,226 | $1,419 | $2,693 | $11,110 |
| Hours worked | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 277 | 315 |
| Net an hour | $9.69 | $10.30 | $7.56 | $4.76 | $10.77 | $40.71 |
| A year | NEA, tendered | NEA, subsidised | HDB coffeeshop | Operator-run | John | Ah Kow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales: what diners pay | $212,004 | $194,790 | $251,264 | $207,776 | $142,695 | $543,600 |
| Ingredients | $94,342 | $86,682 | $111,812 | $94,611 | $67,067 | $241,902 |
| Rent | $15,000 | $3,480 | $40,800 | $20,400 | $15,000 | $15,000 |
| Turnover rent | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Centre fees | $8,640 | $8,640 | $12,000 | $12,600 | $8,640 | $8,640 |
| Assistants' wages | $35,040 | $35,040 | $35,040 | $35,040 | $0 | $93,600 |
| Utilities | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $9,600 | $19,200 |
| Delivery commission | $5,088 | $4,675 | $6,030 | $4,987 | $3,425 | $4,892 |
| Payment fees | $265 | $243 | $314 | $260 | $178 | $680 |
| Operator app discount | $0 | $0 | $0 | $4,156 | $0 | $0 |
| Other running costs | $3,600 | $3,600 | $3,600 | $5,040 | $3,000 | $6,000 |
| Hawker's net (profit) | $38,029 | $40,430 | $29,667 | $18,684 | $35,785 | $153,686 |
| MediSave | $3,993 | $4,245 | $3,115 | $1,962 | $3,221 | $10,080 |
| Income tax | $121 | $164 | $0 | $0 | $255 | $10,291 |
| Workfare | $0 | $0 | $1,638 | $3,104 | $40 | $0 |
| Income and savings | $37,908 | $40,266 | $31,305 | $21,787 | $35,570 | $143,395 |
| Spendable cash | $33,915 | $36,021 | $26,716 | $17,032 | $32,314 | $133,315 |
| Hours worked | 3,926 | 3,926 | 3,926 | 3,926 | 3,322 | 3,775 |
G.2.2What a closed stall costs
A stall shut for illness loses a day's sales, but its rent, fees, assistant and utilities run on. At the typical tendered stall one day costs the hawker $372; 36 days, six weeks, cost $13,388, 35% of the year's net; 100 days cost $37,188. The model's own grid is 1, 18, 36, 130 days (C, §2.9, The Hawker Security Package); this table adds 5, 10 and 100 and agrees with it where they meet. "Rent waived" applies NEA's discretion to waive the rent of the closed days; "with a Corps cook" covers every closed day at the $40 medical co-pay. g2-illness.csv
| Days closed | Net lost | A day | Of the year's net | Rent waived | A day | With a Corps cook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $372 | $372 | 1.0% | $324 | $324 | $40 |
| 5 | $1,859 | $372 | 4.9% | $1,619 | $324 | $200 |
| 10 | $3,719 | $372 | 9.8% | $3,238 | $324 | $400 |
| 36 | $13,388 | $372 | 35.2% | $11,657 | $324 | $1,440 |
| 100 | $37,188 | $372 | 97.8% | $32,381 | $324 | $4,000 |
| Lost a day closed | 1 day | 5 days | 10 days | 36 days | 100 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEA, tendered | $372 | $372 | $372 | $372 | $372 |
| NEA, subsidised | $342 | $342 | $342 | $342 | $342 |
| HDB coffeeshop | $441 | $441 | $441 | $441 | $441 |
| Operator-run | $344 | $344 | $344 | $344 | $344 |
| John | $238 | $238 | $238 | $238 | $238 |
| Ah Kow | $981 | $981 | $981 | $981 | $981 |
The queue is assumed to come back after the illness; if regulars drift away, the loss is larger (F.2, Limits, Assumptions and How This Enters the Plan). A single-handed stall loses less a day because it pays no assistant, but it has no one to keep it open.
G.2.3The newcomer's rent path, three bids
Under NEA's renewal rule of November 2024 a newcomer pays the winning bid for three years, then a rent halfway between the bid and NEA's assessed market rent (its valuation) for the next three, and the valuation itself only from the seventh year. NEA (National Environment Agency, which runs the public hawker centres) publishes neither a stall's valuation nor every bid. So we use the median (the middle figure: half are above it, half below) winning bids NEA published for 2022 and 2023 Official and our own median of NEA's list for January to May 2026 Derived; the valuations of $1,250 and $1,450 are illustrations. A newcomer who wins at the 2023 bid, at a valuation of $1,250, pays $29,700 more over his first six years than if the rent had been the valuation all along. g2-newcomer.csv
| Bid | Bid | Valuation | Years 4–6 | $/h, Y1–3 | $/h, Y4–6 | $/h, Y7 on | Above valuation, 6 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2,000O | $1,250 | $1,625 | $7.39 | $8.54 | $9.69 | $40,500 |
| 2022 | $2,000O | $1,450 | $1,725 | $7.39 | $8.23 | $9.08 | $29,700 |
| 2023 | $1,800O | $1,250 | $1,525 | $8.01 | $8.85 | $9.69 | $29,700 |
| 2023 | $1,800O | $1,450 | $1,625 | $8.01 | $8.54 | $9.08 | $18,900 |
| 2026 | $1,950D | $1,250 | $1,600 | $7.55 | $8.62 | $9.69 | $37,800 |
| 2026 | $1,950D | $1,450 | $1,700 | $7.55 | $8.31 | $9.08 | $27,000 |