Companion volume G
The Technical Paper
Every parameter, dataset and simulation behind the library, printed from the three models with their sensitivities, published as data and set out so that anyone can rebuild them.
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Companion volume G. If you want to check the arithmetic, start here. It reads on its own and says which other documents to read with it.
How to Read This Volume
This is the arithmetic, laid bare. Every table here is printed by a program from the three models the plan rests on, and every table can be downloaded and checked. If a number in the Plan looks wrong to you, this is where to find out whether it is.
The other volumes argue; this one only counts. It adds no findings and no new assumptions. Where a sensitivity needs a range the models do not carry, I move the parameter 20% either way and say so beside it. Granted, a volume of tables is not light reading. It is not meant to be. It is meant to be checked.
| Section | What it holds |
|---|---|
| G.1 | Every parameter of the three models, 295 in all, with its value, unit, source, mark and where it is used; every input of the stall archetypes; the data dictionary of the downloads |
| G.2 | The stall P&L for six stalls, a month and a year; what days closed for illness cost; the newcomer's rent path for three bids |
| G.3 | The Monte Carlo's inputs and draws; net income, hours and rent as deciles, quartiles and means |
| G.4 | The funding ledgers: every centre, every line, Years 0–20; the four stacks; the endowment's paths; licence failure |
| G.5 | The Succession Mortgage, year by year, by stall type; the royalty and its buy-out; what licences pay masters' families |
| G.6 | The Regulars' List in orders; the Year 0 baseline's samples, hours and what it publishes |
| G.7 | One-at-a-time sensitivities: 30 parameters tested, the twelve that move the totals most |
| G.8 | The rent, fee, price and real-sales series since 2012, 666 values in all |
| G.9 | How to reproduce it: the parity tests, the commands, the downloads and the version |
The marks
Every number carries one of three marks. Official is a published figure. Derived is our arithmetic on published figures, and every model output is derived in this sense: it is what the equations give from the inputs in G.1, Inputs and Sources. Assumption is not grounded in Singapore data. The plan's own design choices, such as Band B's rent or the size of a Fellowship, are marked as assumptions too, because nothing measured fixes them. In tables the mark is a chip, a column, or a letter after the value: O official, D derived, A assumption. Of the 295 parameters in G.1, 42 are official, 52 derived and 201 assumptions.
All money is Singapore dollars. Stall figures are 2026 dollars a month unless a column says otherwise; the funding model's figures are each year's own money (nominal) unless marked as today's dollars. Plan years run from July: Year 0 is 2026–27. Each table's file name is shown beside it, for example g2-pnl.csv; G.9, Reproducibility lists them all. Model figures are estimates, not measurements.