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B.10Gates, Downside Mode & Sunset

B.10 Gates, Downside Mode & Sunset: table 1
The gateUp to five centres, each centre's own vote decides (the Plan, §6.2). The plan may grow beyond five only when the evaluator confirms all of these, at month 43 or later after the Lighthouses open: · (1) at least 70% of Fellowships completed, and no centre below 50%; · (2) every centre's first graduates in stalls, with at least 80% still running one at month 12; · (3) a trust index of at least 55% and rising at every centre; · (4) at least six Succession Mortgages signed or held in escrow, at two centres or more; · (5) the full $40M endowment raised, and each further centre's first two years funded (the Plan, §6.5).
Downside modeIf the campaign stalls at the first close ($12M), both Lighthouses keep running and Tekka waits. Their Year 3 spend is about $5.6M ($5,624,989), with thirteen Master Fellowships and 23 and 6 relief cooks (B.8).
The maintenance rateFrom Year 4, once every Fellowship in a centre's planning count (the heritage-worthy stalls it was costed for) has been offered, new Fellowships continue at about 10% of that count a year. This is an assumption, fed by the yearly count of stalls at risk, which comes from the signals hawkers give voluntarily and from public facts: three at Chinatown Complex and one each at Geylang Serai and Tekka. The programme then costs about $4.13M a year and, at the central assumptions, no year runs short. At 20% the centres run short in just one year up to Year 10, by about $0.06M, and the endowment ends Year 20 worth about 87% of its target after inflation; at 30% they run short by about $6.9M over Years 4–10 (the Plan, §3.6, B.8; B.9.4). Old Airport Road would add about $1.14M a year and Maxwell about $0.71M (B.1).
The Regulars' ListThe settings are the grades. Bronze, the listing itself, needs 20 endorsements, always. Silver, Gold and Platinum need 50, 100 and 250 endorsements, or regulars placing 10%, 20% and 50% of the stall's weekly orders, whichever comes first, so a small stall is not held back by its size. The unit is the order: a family's takeaway of several plates is one order. All of them are assumptions, at 1.5 orders a week and 1.2 to 2.0 plates an order by dish type, until the Year 0 count of orders sets the shares by dish type (the Plan, §3.6, §6.1; Follow the Plate, D.4.2). A regular is one named person who orders there at least weekly, one endorsement a person, verified by a mobile number and never bought. What breaks first is trust in the count, if endorsements could be bought or farmed; the light check and the rule that grades only go up and never decide a Fellowship are what answer it (the Plan, §3.6). Its cost barely moves with the grades: a listing visit and a decal for each new stall, a new decal at print cost when a stall moves up a grade, the booklets and one coordinator (B.1).
The splitEach year's ledger sets the operating budget, the institution's own running cost, apart from the programme budget that reaches hawkers, centre by centre. Over Years 0–3, 72.4% of the net requirement reaches hawkers directly, and the running cost averages about $113,000 a month; the Regulars' List sits in the operating budget, because it is the cost of keeping the list, not money that reaches hawkers (B.1, the Plan, §3.6). Each centre's lines follow its own shape: its heritage-worthy stalls for the Fellowships, its stall count for the cover and the relief cooks (B.1; B.9.6).
SunsetUnspent donations go back to the donors, as each gift's terms require; the endowment's capital goes to another charitable purpose; the archive passes to the National Heritage Board under open licences (B.8).

This is a working paper for public discussion. Every number in it is an invitation to improve it. Corrections and better data are welcome.