D.6The Shocks of 2026–27

Six changes already in view for 2026–27, run through each kind of stall. Each cell shows the change in the hawker's net income, with the change in the price of a plate beneath it.

Sources for the shocks. Food import prices: 102.4 in August 2026 (2023 = 100; SingStat). Wages: the PWM path for food-stall assistants, $2,220 from July 2026, $2,360 from July 2027 and $2,500 from July 2028 (MOM, 16 March 2026), applied to every wage the stall pays (+12.6%), employer CPF included, with 30% of the cost passed on, an assumption. Energy: the 2026 conflict in the Middle East drove oil and gas prices up from late February. Electricity rose from 27.27 to 31.91 cents a kWh before GST in Q3 2026 (SP Group) and town gas from 21.92 to 23.48 cents (City Energy, as reported); electricity and gas inflation reached 8.7% in September (MAS, 23 Oct 2026), and some hawkers raised prices by 50 cents to $1 in April (as reported). In Q4 the tariffs fell to 28.59 and 21.45 cents (SP Group, 30 Sep 2026: 10.4% less for households), still above Q2; SP Group has not said where they go next, and one analyst expects a single-digit rise in Q1 2027 (Rystad Energy, as reported, 30 Sep 2026). We assume a stall's utility bill is 60% electricity and 40% gas; on that mix, its bill in the fourth quarter of 2026 is still +2.0% on the second quarter's. A rise hits every stall at once, so we assume stalls pass half of it on to diners, in line with MTI's 2015 study of gas prices (its gas-price effect divided by the utilities' share of costs); a fall is assumed not to lower prices. NEA's temporary $200 a month of rent support, September 2026 to February 2027, was meant to offset the rise and is left out of the baseline (D.2.2). GST stays at 9%, and the carbon tax's step to $45 a tonne in 2026 is already inside the tariffs. The Johor Bahru–Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link, delayed to February 2027, is expected by the Singapore Business Federation (SBF) to draw spending to Johor; we model it as 3% fewer diners at stalls in the northern towns.

The pattern is consistent. Shocks that hit every stall's costs at once, such as ingredients and wages, reach the diner. Shocks that hit one stall at a time, such as its rent or its custom, stay with the hawker, because a stall that raises its price alone loses its customers to the stall next door. The hawker is the shock absorber of the trade, and the absorber is thinnest where the rent is highest.